Oyo State governor, Mr. Seyi Makinde, revealed that some northern politicians have started preparation for 2023 by showing interest in the PDP ticket. He mentioned names like Atiku Abubakar, who led the party in 2019, Bala Mohammed, Bauchi State governor and Aminu Tambuwal. But there are two reasons the northern elite may not get the PDP ticket.
The first reason is that the People's Democratic Party is deeply rooted in the southern region. Out of nineteen states in north, the PDP can only claim Sokoto, Adamawa, Bauchi, Taraba and Benue. Whereas the PDP can claim five states in south-south (apart from Cross Rivers), one in southwest and two in southeast excluding Ebonyi.
The southern PDP governors can team up to conclude that they would vote for just one person as the presidential candidate. And the northern region may not be able to stop the politician, who comes from the southern zone. Hence, the northern politicians may not get the ticket based on the calculation.
Note that the decision of the southern governors would go a long way to influence the outcome of the primary election. At their meeting in Lagos, the southern governors said that they wanted political power to shift or move to the southern part of Nigeria. They may work towards it.
The second reason is that it would be difficult for the PDP to have a northern chairman and a northern presidential candidate. Truly, anything is possible. But the risk is too high and it may cost the political party a lot of things. Note that Mr. Doyin Okupe has warned that the party may lose the poll if the candidate is from north.
The north would surely take the national chairmanship. Mr. Iyorchia Ayu, a top politician from north central Benue, has been adopted. The only thing that remains is for the PDP to organise the convention whereby he would be elected as the sole candidate for the office.
While it's true that the PDP has rights to decide, it won't want to take the risk. Recall that the 2019 race was mainly among northerners. Atiku, Tambuwal and Bukola Saraki were involved in the race. The same thing can't be done again. Therefore, the northern politicians may not get the PDP ticket for the election.
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